The capacity to make ethylene, a main building block of plastics that is separated out of oil and gas extracted from shale rock formations, increased rapidly in the U.S. between 2010 and 2022 during the fracking boom, reaching 43.5 million metric tons per year.  

But now, the global market for ethylene is cooling.  Market analysts have pointed to overbuilding as a primary cause, with trade disputes injecting additional market uncertainty. Several ethylene plants in Europe have closed or are closing, and at least two projects for new plants in the U.S. have stalled, in Louisiana and Ohio.

Despite this turbulence, as of June 2025, at least 14 projects to build new or expand U.S. ethylene production have been announced or are moving ahead, according to public records and company announcements tracked by the Oil & Gas Watch database and available in a new fact sheet.  

If only half of the projects are built, they could increase ethylene production capacity by another 9.19 million metric tons per year, a 21 percent increase over current levels. If built, these new plants will release a significant amount of greenhouse gas pollution, other health-damaging air emissions, and water pollution.  

Permit records available for the new and expanding plants indicate that they could increase climate-warming emissions by over 27 million tons, or as much as 6.3 million cars driven for a year. They could also increase health-harming air pollution by over 22,452 tons per year, largely in areas already overburdened with industrial air pollution.

Although the ethylene market is uncertain, companies appear to be betting on favorable economic conditions at some point in the future.

In the U.S., ethylene is largely made from ethane, a hydrocarbon liquid fracked out of the ground with oil and natural gas. That ethane is converted into ethylene at massive chemical plants called steam crackers, which use high temperatures, steam, and a catalyst to split or “crack” ethane molecules into ethylene.  

The U.S. has a lot of ethane, which is why some companies may expect their new projects to be profitable in the global market. Older plants that rely on naphtha, an oil refining byproduct that is also used to make ethane, are shutting down. U.S. ethane is cheaper than other feedstocks used to make ethylene in other parts of the world.

The U.S. exports a growing share of ethane to foreign countries where it is turned into plastic, including in China and Belgium.  

Two American companies export ethane: Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners. Enterprise operates export terminals in Morgans Point, Texas. Energy Transfer operates an terminals in Nederland, Texas, near Port Arthur and in Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, outside of Philadelphia. The Texas terminals ship ethane to Asia, while the Pennsylvania terminals’ shipments go to Europe.

Ethane was at the center of a trade spat between the U.S. and China earlier this year. On July 2, the US lifted licensing requirements it had announced in June to restrict ethane exports to China, effectively ending the dispute. However, the episode caused ethane prices to plummet. At the same time, many existing U.S. crackers were offline due to planned maintenance. The Energy Information Administration now anticipates that the US will export more than 500,000 barrels of ethane per day this year, and around 650,000 barrels per day next year.

While the market remains turbulent and competition for cheap ethane is intense, with new ethylene crackers coming online in China, Canada, and Qatar, some companies are marching toward building new, massive, multi-billion-dollar ethylene production plants in the U.S.  Closures in other parts of the world, like in Europe, could be making U.S. projects appear more attractive.

At least four ethylene projects are under construction. Three will expand ethylene production at existing plants in Texas, Louisiana, and Kentucky, and one, Chevron Phillips and Qatar Energy’s Golden Triangle Polymers Plant in Orange County, Texas, will be a new plant capable of making 2 million metric tons of ethylene per year. The massive new plant will turn ethylene into polyethylene, a kind of plastic used to make single use items like plastic forks and food packaging.  

The $8.5 billion Golden Triangle plant was first announced in 2019. Permit records indicate that could emit over 3.8 million tons of greenhouse gases per year (as carbon dioxide equivalents) – about as much as a coal-fired power plant -- along with over 4,000 tons per year of health-harming air pollutants like volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides . It is expected to begin operating next year.  

Chevron Phillips is seeking approval from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to discharge over 5 million gallons of wastewater from the plant. It would contain 65 different pollutants, including chemicals like benzene and vinyl chloride, which would be discharged into the Sabine River. The plant will also have to secure a federal air pollution control permit that sets monitoring, reporting, and other pollution control requirements for when the plant is operating. Chevron’s application is pending before the Commission.

In late 2024, Exxon announced that it plans to build another large ethane cracker, called the Coastal Plain Project, in Calhoun County, next to Formosa’s Point Comfort plastics plant. The $8.6 billion new plant would be able to make up to 2.2 million metric tons of ethylene and between 1.8 and 2.7 million metric tons of polyethylene plastic, making it one of the largest plants of its kind in the country. A plant of this size could emit as much as 6 million tons of climate warming greenhouse gases every year, along with thousands of tons of health-harming air pollution. They expect it to be operating by 2031, in 6 years. Exxon still needs to apply for and obtain an air pollution construction permit, which authorizes construction under the federal Clean Air Act.

The largest proposed plant is Taiwan-based Formosa’s Sunshine Project, which the company hopes to locate in St. James Parish, Louisiana. The plant was initially proposed seven years ago, in 2018. In addition to being able to make up to 2.4 million tons of ethylene, the $9.4 billion plant would also make polyethylene, polypropylene, and ethylene glycol on-site. Formosa initially expected to bring this plant online by 2024, but litigation and pushback from residents in St. James Parish, along with unfavorable economics, have kept the project from moving forward as planned. However, as recently as May 2025, the plant applied for millions in tax breaks under Louisiana’s Quality Jobs rebate program to support the project.  

Meanwhile, LACC, a joint venture between Lotte Chemical Corporation of South Korea and Westlake Chemical Corporation, proposed building an additional 0.5 metric ton per year ethane cracker at its plant in Westlake, Louisiana back in 2022. The company is also considering an optimization project that would also increase ethylene production capacity. The ethylene plant’s increased production would feed a vinyl chloride expansion underway at Westlake’s plant in Geismar, Louisiana.  

In February, ICIS, a market intelligence firm that specializes in the petrochemical industry, reported that Weslake plant would need to do another cost analysis to take into consideration changes in potential material costs and labor. The Clean Air Act construction permitting for the new cracker hasn’t moved past application stage since it was filed in 2022.

Many of the projects, including Formosa’s Sunshine Project and another massive new plant in Ohio backed by PTTGCA, have been stalled for quite some time. New large builds, like Exxon’s Coastal Plain Project and Energy Transfer’s proposed Nederland cracker, will likely face economic headwinds and significant pushback from nearby communities.

Meanwhile, the technology to produce “cleaner” ethylene, including electric crackers and hydrogen-fueled furnaces, are starting to be deployed at some plants, like ExxonMobil’s Baytown Olefins Plant outside of Houston, Texas. LyondellBassil’s Channelview plant has also installed an electric cracking unit in recent years, though it is unclear if and how this new technology has reduced air pollution from ethylene production at the plant.

Lead photo: The Gulf Coast Growth Ventures facility in Texas, which includes and ethane cracker. Photo by Garth Lenz/Flight SouthWings.