Although he did not mention it during his campaign, since taking office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the U.S. should buy or seize Greenland – the largest island in the world, and part of the Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO ally.

Greenland is mostly covered in a sheet of ice more than a mile thick. But a U.S. Geological Survey study from 2008 estimates that there are 31 billion barrels of oil in eastern Greenland and the waters just east of the island.

U.S. oil companies for years had been exploring the possibility of drilling in Greenland —although it would be expensive, because there are no roads or pipelines and the Arctic weather can be deadly.  

Beneath the ice on Greenland are also uranium and rare earth metals – such as lithium, niobium, and zirconium -- needed for electric cars, cell phones, batteries, and computers.  

But the Parliament of Greenland in 2021 – for reasons of environmental protection -- passed legislation that banned mining for uranium. That action also halted mining at the Kuannersuit mine, one of the biggest deposits of rare earth metals in the world, because of concerns about the contamination of local waters and fish by mining waste.

The Parliament also voted to stop all exploration for oil and gas on the island, because they were worried about worsening the global climate crisis and polluting the local environment.

“That’s an important part of all this – the environmental issues,” said Professor Anne Merrild, who grew up on the island and is now an expert on Greenland’s resources at Aalborg University in Denmark.

“They did not want to risk an oil spill, which could damage fisheries and hunting, which are still making up the livelihoods in many Greenlandic communities,” Merrild said. “But the climate was also a strong part of the whole narrative around why they didn’t want people going in and doing more oil and gas exploration in Greenland.”

In the face of this local opposition to exploiting the petroleum and uranium on the island, Trump began insisting that the U.S. “needs” to take Greenland, by economic threats or military force.  

Trump called the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, last month and threatened her country with tariffs if she would not sell Greenland. It was a “fiery” phone call, according to news reports, that left the NATO ally “freaked out.”

"I think we're going to have it," Trump told reporters last month. "I think we'll get Greenland because it has to do with freedom of the world.”

But not the freedom of the Greenland people.  A recent poll found that 85 percent of Greenlanders do not want to become part of the U.S., with only 6 percent indicating they were in favor of joining America, and 45 percent viewing Trump’s words as a threat.

The political fate of the island and its 56,583 people may be decided in part on Greenland’s general elections on March 11.  

In advance of that vote, Greenland’s Parliament passed a bill outlawing foreign campaign contributions.  Despite this ban, Trump supporters have been passing out $100 bills and MAGA hats on the island, trying to drum up support for a Trump take-over.  

An ally of the President’s in the U.S. Congress -- Rep. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter (R-GA) – even introduced a bill that would rename Greenland “Red, White, and Blueland” and authorize the U.S. to buy the island.

“America is back and will soon be bigger than ever with the addition of Red, White, and Blueland,” Carter said in a press release.

So how much of this Republican desire to take Greenland – whether the locals want it or not – has to do with freedom or national security (as Trump has asserted)? And how much of this is really about the green in the land: The cash value of the island’s oil and minerals?

The New York Times recently reported that Trump’s billionaire Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, is the CEO of a financial firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, that has a financial stake in a company, Critical Metals, that could make a profit by mining on Greenland next year.

The question of money or politics, paradoxically, could be both, according to Professor Merrild. Companies like Lutnick’s likely want to profit from the rare earth metals on the island, which are needed for batteries, electronics, and electric cars, among other products. And the Trump Administration also aims to keep its geopolitical rival, China, which already controls much of the global market in rare earth metals, from also seizing control of Greenland’s minerals.  A total monopoly over the metals would give China more political power, said  Merrild.

“Of course they are interested in the resources,” Merrild said of the Trump Administration. “But it’s more for the power of regulating or having access to the resources for others. I think we will see an increased interest in the mineral resources of Greenland in coming years, and we will see American companies engaging in mineral exploration in Greenland.”

Paul Bierman, a professor at the University of Vermont, is the author of a new book on Greenland’s resources titled “When the Ice is Gone.” He  doubts that the petroleum buried on and near the island is what is attracting the Trump Administration’s to the icy Arctic zone, which is becoming more accessible as global warming opens up Arctic shipping lanes.

Bierman noted that major international oil and gas companies were performing significant exploration in Greenland about 20 years ago, but they found conditions extraordinarily challenging. There are almost no roads on the island, incredibly harsh weather that often prevents flying, and buckling ground and landslides caused by climate change. Access to drilling sites by boat is often blocked by icebergs, which can crush drilling rigs.

“There has been drilling in Greenland, but it has not worked out well,” Bierman said. “There are leases that have been handed back by oil companies, and there are a lot reasons for that. It is an extremely difficult place to work, and an extremely expensive place to work.”

One reason U.S. exploration for oil and gas in Greenland halted about 15 years ago, Bierman said, was because the fracking revolution in the U.S. started producing huge amounts of oil and gas so cheaply that the cost of Arctic petroleum could not compete.

Trump is correct in understanding that what happens in Greenland matters to the U.S., Bierman said.  

“But he’s got it wrong in that it matters not for its mineral resources, but for keeping the ice on Greenland,” Bierman said. Because if you melt the ice on Greenland [because of climate change], that will add so much water into the ocean that it will raise the water levels globally between 22 and 25 feet. Imagine your favorite beach, and then imagine it with 24 feet of water over it.”

In other words, if the world doesn’t move aggressively to stop the burning of fossil fuels and slow climate change, Greenland’s melting ice will flood not only coastal cities like New York and Los Angeles, but also Mar-A-Lago.

“Keeping the ice frozen is probably the single most effective thing we can do as a country,” Bierman said.

Beyond the issue of climate change and the natural resources on the island are the people of Greenland and what they want.

Åsa K Rennermalm, a geography professor at Rutgers University and Greenland expert who has spent a lot of time on the island with its people, said that the country is somewhat divided about whether to extract minerals and oil. Some oppose extraction for environmental reasons, she noted. Others favor mining as a way for Greenland to make enough money from international markets to allow the island to declare its independence from the Kingdom of Denmark, which some resent as a colonial power with a history of abusing the native people.  

Right now, Greenland is financially dependent on Denmark but also enjoys European-style  government benefits like free healthcare services and good public schools. Those government benefits would likely not remain if the U.S. took over, with its emphasis on the private sector.

“When I hear from people I know on Greenland, they are really stressed out about Trump’s comments and there is anxiety about what it means,” Rennermalm said. “He talked about buying Greenland. But how do you buy a country? This is an autonomous part of Denmark. They have a parliament, and they have a culture and a language and history.  It’s not just a parcel of land that someone can buy.”

Lead photo: Traditional wooden houses in Kulusuk village, East Greenland. Photo by iStockphoto.