Even if the U.S. and Iran strike a peace deal soon, the international oil market has reached a “breaking point” that means higher prices over the coming months, analysts with one investment research firm wrote.

In a Sunday Substack post, HFI Research analysts wrote that an agreement between the U.S. and Iran that reopens the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint will not stop countries from having to draw down their fuel reserves. That will lead to much higher prices over the coming months, with physical shortages and oil use cutbacks likely in countries that deplete their stockpiles quickly.

The Brent crude price, used as a global oil price benchmark, could settle around $95 per barrel if the strait reopens this month, HFI Research wrote on March 25. The price peaked at $119 in March but remains well above the $70 per barrel it traded at before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

“If the Strait of Hormuz opens after April, we cannot provide an accurate oil price forecast. We will have crossed too deep into the Rubicon,” the company’s post states.