A Department of Energy study on the economic and climate impacts of the U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) boom shows a continued rise in exports would significantly increase household energy costs.
The report released Tuesday shows that if exports continue to grow under current policies, they would raise average household energy bills by $122 per year.
“To date, U.S. consumers and businesses have benefited from relatively stable natural gas prices domestically as compared to those in other parts of the world who have faced far greater price volatility,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. “The more volumes of U.S. LNG are exported, the greater the risk of this global price volatility being imported into our domestic market and impacting U.S. consumers and manufacturers.”
The study also considered the LNG export boom’s impact on the climate. It shows that if exports exceed currently authorized levels, it would at 1.5 gigatons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, or just over 25 percent of the U.S.’s current annual greenhouse gas emissions, Granholm said. That does not even factor in the emissions associated with burning the gas abroad.
The Biden Administration commissioned the study after a pause in January 2024 on new LNG exports to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement. Sixteen Republican-led states sued the administration, and a judge blocked the pause in July. In September, the Department of Energy issued its first permit to export gas to a country without a free trade agreement since the pause took effect.
The Department of Energy had previously studied the LNG boom in 2018 and 2019, when the U.S.’s export capacity was 4 billion cubic feet per day, less than a third of what it is now. Since then, exports have grown to 12.9 billion cubic feet per day.
Exports would grow to 23.7 billion cubic feet per day with existing terminals plus all of those under construction or with construction soon to begin. If all pending export applications are approved, LNG shipments would reach 43.6 billion cubic feet per day.
Federal law and treaties require the Department of Energy to grant applications to export LNG to countries with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement “without delay or modification.” However, for countries without such an agreement with the U.S., the department can deny these applications if it finds exports “will not be consistent with the public interest.”
The Department of Energy will accept public comments on the study until Feb. 18, 2025. Comments can be submitted here, with more information available in the public notice.
