In the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on exports from Canada, energy analysts are saying the proposal would increase fuel prices for Americans.

On Nov. 25, Trump threatened a 25 percent tariff on “all products” coming from Mexico and Canada, tying them to the flow of drugs and immigrants across U.S. borders. Analysts warn a tariff on Canadian oil imports would affect how much U.S. consumers pay for gasoline.

“Any tariffs on Canadian oil are going to increase pump prices given the dependence of much of the U.S. refining industry on Canadian crude," Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston told Reuters.

In 2023, 60 percent of U.S. crude oil imports came from Canada, up from 33 percent in 2013, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Many U.S. refineries, particularly in the Midwest, are geared to process the heavy sour crude that comes from Canada’s oil sands.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on X (formerly Twitter) that the impact on gasoline prices would be most severe in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, ranging from 15 cents per gallon to 75 cents per gallons.  

Others expressed skepticism that Trump would follow through on applying the tariffs to Canadian oil, describing the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic over the border.

“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers,” Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. “That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters.”

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